Wayne Mayo - the developer of My HorseRaces
In developing My HorseRaces, Wayne Mayo has combined interest, study and analysis of horse racing in Australia over 35 years with computer and mathematical/statistical training and experience.
Wayne began using computers in Canberra, Australia in the 1970s in geological research at the Bureau of Mineral Resources (BMR). Graduated from the Australian National University with degrees in both Science (sub-major in statistics) and Economics, his economics degree had included a major in the then relatively new discipline of Computer Science. At that time, the only computers available in the workplace were vast mainframes and FORTRAN was the favoured scientific 'number cruncher'.
During his early experience at race going, he quickly realised that each race was a market where the prices (the odds) were often being set by many people betting with only limited knowledge of the form of the race horses. It seemed that there was scope to arbitrage between the prices set by the market and the prices that analysis of the form might suggest.
Hence, when able outside work hours, during his time at the BMR and subsequently while delving into economic research at the Industries Assistance Commission and economic policy over 20 years at the Australian Treasury, Wayne continued to develop a computer program for analysing the form of race horses. The 'engine' of the computer program, originally written in Basic (which has similarities with FORTRAN), was developed on a range of computers from a Tandy TRS80, to an Apple 2c, to a 486 IBM clone. The program initially focussed on speed ratings to compare horses and measure consistency of performance. In recognition of the shortcomings of 'pure' speed ratings (which ignore factors other than time to run a race), weight ratings were added in the 1980s when this form of analysis became widely disseminated (through, for example, Don Scott's 1985 book, 'Winning More') . Blending both speed and weight ratings was a particular challenge in developing the program.
On leaving the Australian Treasury in 2000, Wayne first developed a computer model of a complete business income tax system.
His attention then switched to turning the horse race computer program into a viable package for others to use. The program was finally transferred to a machine operating with Microsoft® XP and 512 Mb of memory, enabling the 'engine' to be fitted within a Microsoft® Visual Basic.NET front-end (incorporating Crystal Reports) and a Microsoft® Access back-end to store race data. The Access back-end enabled the previous inefficient 'linear' data base to be converted into an efficient linked data base. My HorseRaces was created.
My HorseRaces reflects many years of searching for factors driving the profitability of horse racing. You may be able to draw from that search and perhaps extend it through your own research and analysis using the package to make horse racing a more profitable experience for yourself. There is no single fixed way of analysing a particular class of race. There are many choices that can significantly affect the outcomes of the analysis. My HorseRaces allows you to try many different combinations of options - both prospectively and retrospectively - on the classes of race that you follow. With the help of My HorseRaces' profit optimisation facility you may find the combination of options that puts the probabilities on your side in your favourite class of race.
My HorseRaces is for you if you are serious about your horse racing, if you spend hours working over the race form quantifying the basis of your selections or if you devote significant time to your horse race analysis but at the end of a period you do not know how a different analytical approach would have affected your returns or what combination of options and parameters would have maximised profits.
© Copyright Wayne Mayo 2009