My HorseRaces® |
Past Performance of My HorseRaces |
PERFORMANCE FROM HISTORICAL DATA BASES
Results (option/parameter settings used, betting, return on turnover and bet to payout ratio) are shown here from historical data bases built up by My HorseRaces' developer in 2017, 2014/15, 2012, 2009, 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000. These results may help you with option selection and setting of parameter values in your own analyses.
The results reflect the options applied from those available in My HorseRaces package at the time the particular data base was being built up.
if you would like to receive by e-mail summary printouts of any of the results for particular race classes.
General comment on returns from data basesA common aim is to identify the analytical approach that puts the probabilities in the punter's favour. The returns from the historical data bases presented here underline the importance of taking different approaches with different classes of race and under different racing conditions. The playing out of probabilities in practice means that large differences in outcomes for the same class of race are expected even between horse races restricted to the same metropolitan racecourses (2017, 2014/15, 2012, 2009, 2008 (city), 2005, 2004 and 2000) because of the limited number of races in each data base.
As a general proposition, past performance may not be an indication of future performance but that is particularly so when the past performance is measured over a limited period covering a small number of races.
The return over a year for a particular class of race may, for example, be very high. In the following year the return could be low or even negative despite the application of the same analytical approach. Net profits over a number of years, however, might suggest that the associated analytical approach truly puts the odds in the punter's favour.
Other points relevant to the returns for 2017, 2014/15, 2012, 2009, 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000 are:
With either standard multiple race analysis or optimisation, the full professional version of My HorseRaces allows you to analyse all the races in a data base or to restrict the analysis to particular races, as required, on the basis of class, distance, date, number of runners, track condition, racecourse and geographical 'state'. With standard multiple race analysis, you may choose to have the same set of options/parameters apply to all races selected or have different options apply to each race in the selected set. The initial options/parameters and the options/parameters being varied under optimisation must apply, however, to all races selected.
Following tables show the results of applying My HorseRaces' optimisation facility to data bases for 2017, 2014/15,2009, 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000. The table relating to 2012 races draws on prior-year optimised results to set analysis options up front for different groups of races - to simulate betting for profit as opposed to optimising performance outcomes after the event. In all the following tables:
This data base contains just 48 races run on each Saturday during the 2017 Melbourne racing carnival, from 21 October (Caulfield Cup day) to 11 November inclusive, and races run on Tuesday 7 November at Flemington (Melbourne Cup day). The races were all run on dry, good tracks.
The data base was created to test performance on a concentrated series of high level races.
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia (RA). Races uploaded were restricted to races run on metropolitan Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane tracks, as well as Geelong and Morphettville racecourses and international racecourses on which international horses entered in the racing carnival ran. Racing files containing form over the past two years for each horse were used. Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer. The developer also separately identified starting characteristics of each horse and estimated running disadvantages in each horse's past races.
Of the 48 races:
Of the 32 sprint races:
Analysis of the data base was undertaken after the compilation of the data base (as with all performance analyses presented here). As usual, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Betting for places (on the TAB) was applied only when betting for wins (on the TAB) did not prove profitable.
The analysis options for each group of races in the table were chosen on the basis of a limited number of changes to default settings, drawing on prior year settings for the particular race class (without using My HorseRaces' optimisation facility). Default settings include weight rating analysis. With some sprint races (open and benchmark classes), changes to default settings include a shift from weight rating analysis to speed rating analysis.
Despite the small number of races in each different class of race, the results are a good example of how returns from common analysis options applied across all race classes (20.8% return on turnover from default options in this case) can be increased considerably if options are refined for different race classes (to 65.5% return on turnover in this case when options are changed across race classes as shown in the following table).
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 48 races | Defaults | Win on TAB(b) | 20.8 | 13/167 48 races |
| Distance races (more than 1900m) | Form > 12 mnths out Limit wts ignored No barrier adjustment | Win on TAB | 74.0 | 6(a)/64 16 races |
| 2yo sprint | Defaults only | Win on TAB | 105.9 | 2/16 3 races |
| 3yo sprint | Form > 6 months out No age improvement | Place on TAB | 4.1 | 10/39 10 races |
| F & M sprint | Limit wts ignored | Win on TAB | 76.5 | 3/20 7 races |
| RBH races sprint | Speed rating analysis only (standard) | Place on TAB | 24.3 | 1/2 2 races |
| Open and welter sprint | Speed rating analysis only (standard) Speed ratings weight adjusted | Win on TAB | 131.7 | 4/23 10 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 1487 races held in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (including selected Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Ipswich meetings) on most weekends from 1 February to 25 July 2015. 1163 of the races were run on dry tracks and 324 on wet tracks ('slow'/'soft' or 'heavy').
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (restricting races to those on specified Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane tracks) downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia (RA). For the first two Saturdays, racing files containing form over the past two years were used and subsequently racing files containing each horse’s last five starts. Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.
Of the 1163 races on dry tracks:
Of the 981 sprint races on dry tracks:
The 324 races on wet tracks comprise races across all these categories of races on dry tracks.
The analysis options for each group of races in the table were chosen from prior year settings plus some use of My HorseRaces optimisation facility.
Betting for places (on the TAB) was applied only when betting for wins (on the TAB) did not prove profitable.
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet tracks excluding 83 3yo and 60 distance races | Form > 3 months out Analysis favourite | Win on TAB | 18.9 | 32/184 324 races |
| Distance races (more than 1900m) | Form > 11 mnths out Limit wts ignored No barrier adjustment Analysis favourite | Place on TAB | 9.0 | 63/162 182 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed only analysis (fastest horse) Speed ratings weight adjusted No barrier adjustment Analysis favourite | Place on TAB | -0.8 | 25/43 129 races |
| 3yo sprint | Form > 6 months out 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Limit wts ignored No age improvement Analysis favourite | Win on TAB | 34.4 | 38/204 207 races |
| C6 sprint | Form > 3 mnths out 3 loading on 'speed' horses Limit wts ignored No declining or anomalous adj Analysis favourite | Win on TAB | 7.8 | 7/56 59 races |
| F & M sprint No other restrictions | Form > 6 mnths out 2 loading on 'speed' horses Limit wts ignored Analysis favourite | Place on TAB | 24.7 | 28/71 75 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ sprint No restrictions or 0, 1, 2 metro wins | Form > 6 months out 3 loading on 'speed' horses Limit wts ignored Distance races out | Win on TAB | 125.9 (e) | 9/106 46 races |
| RBH races sprint | Form > 12 mnths out 4 loading on 'speed' horses No declining rating adjust Analysis favourite | Win on TAB | 16.9 (e) | 29/226 223 races |
| Open and welter sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted | Win on TAB | 1.0 | 50/702 242 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 1206 races held in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (including selected Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and Ipswich meetings) on each weekend from 3 December 2011 to 1 December 2012 (as well as the occasional Monday meeting). 917 of the races were run on dry tracks and 289 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy').
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (restricting races to those on specified Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane tracks) downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia (RA). For the first two Saturdays, racing files containing form over the past two years were used and subsequently racing files containing each horse’s last five starts. Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.
Of the 917 races on dry tracks:
Of the 778 sprint races on dry tracks:
The 289 races on wet tracks comprise races across all these categories of races on dry tracks.
The analysis options for each group of races in the table were chosen from options determined using My HorseRaces optimisation facility on prior-year data bases.
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races | All (dry and wet) | Form > 6 months out | Place on SP odds | 2.4 (-9.9 on TAB) | 859/3433 1206 races |
All | Market favourite | Place on SP odds | -5.6 (-8.5 on TAB) | 590/1274 1206 races |
All wet tracks (slow and heavy) | Form > 6 months out | Win on TAB | 5.5 | 78/744 289 races |
Wet tracks excluding 3yo and distance races | Form > 6 months out | Win on TAB | 19.5 | 61/498 201 races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance races (more than 1900m) | Default options | Place on SP odds | 24.0 (0.1 on TAB) | 87/416 139 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed only analysis 1 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted | Place on SP odds | 32.9 (20.0 on TAB) | 18/36 94 races (71 with insufficient form for selections) |
| 3yo non-RBH sprint | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Form > 6 months out | Win on TAB | 57.5 | 40/347 119 races |
| 3yo RBH sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses No jockey adjustment Form > 12 months out | Place on SP odds | 12.9 (-4.0 on TAB) | 31/106 48 races |
| C6 sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses | Win on TAB | 6.4 | 12/124 51 races |
| F & M sprint No other restrictions | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Flexible jockey disadvantage | Place on SP odds | 29.6 (12.2 on TAB) | 46/138 53 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ sprint No restrictions or 0, 1, 2 metro wins | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Form > 12 months out | Place on SP odds | 13.2 (-14.4 on TAB) | 72/274 111 races |
| RBH races sprint excluding 3yo, fillies/mares races | 1 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Form > 6 months out | Place on SP odds | 10.4 (-1.1 on TAB) | 74/396 127 races |
| RBH races sprint for fillies/mares | 1 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Form > 12 months out | Win on SP odds | 1.9 | 16/153 59 races |
| Open and welter sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Flexible jockey disadvantage | Place on SP odds | 26.4 (6.1 on TAB) | 81/350 116 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 467 races held in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane (including Sunshine and Gold Coast courses) on each weekend between 3 January and 2 May 2009 (as well as on Monday 26 January 2009). 418 of the races were run on dry tracks and 49 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy').
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (New Form files but restricting races to those on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane tracks) downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia (RA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.
Of the 467 races:
Of the 407 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 4kg loading on 'speed' horses Weight adjusted speed ratings No BP adjustments Distance form out (sprint races) Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 7.4 | 109/1167 467 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -4.8 | 151/489 467 races |
| All (wet tracks) | Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 43.3 | 12/134 49 races |
| Distance races (More than 1900m) | Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 73.4 | 18/182 60 races |
| 2yo sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted | Place on SP odds | 48.7 | 51/148 66 races |
| 3yo sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted No BP adjustment | Win on TAB | 48.7 | 22/197 84 races |
| C6 sprint | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Declining ratings out | Place on SP odds | 5.1 | 22/66 34 races |
| Fillies & mares (sprint) | 4 loading on 'speed' horses No BP adjustment Distance form out | Win on TAB | 39.0 | 12/102 38 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) No restrictions | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted No BP adjustments No jockey adjustments Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 55.7 | 10/119 45 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) 1 or 2 metro wins | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Distance form out Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 26.2 | 8/84 32 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) 0 metro wins | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted No BP adjustments No jockey adjustments Distance form out | Place on SP odds | -9.5 | 12/59 22 races |
| Open sprint | Speed horse with top wt rating 1 loading on 'speed' horses Declining ratings out | Place on SP odds | 9.6 | 7/13 45 races (42 with no selections) |
| RBH races | 3 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Distance form out | Win on TAB | 13.7 | 8/89 32 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 418 Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane races from 2008, 323 on dry tracks and 95 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy').
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (New Form files but restricting races to those on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane tracks) arbitrarily selected and downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia (RA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.
Of the 418 races:
Of the 345 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 0.5kg loading on 'speed' horses Weight adjusted speed ratings | Place on SP odds | 0.0 | 299/1188 418 races |
| All | 0.5kg loading on 'speed' horses Weight adjusted speed ratings | Win on TAB | -2.7 | 106/1188 418 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -5.9 | 131/440 418 races |
| All (wet tracks) | Default options | Win on TAB | 7.4 | 27/276 95 races |
| Distance races (More than 1900m) | 0.5kg loading on 'speed' horses Weight adjusted speed ratings | Win on TAB | 1.9 | 20/221 73 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed horse with top wt rating 1 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Form >6mths out | Win on TAB | 43.5 | 3/8 43 races (35 with no selections) |
| 3yo sprint | Speed rating only Form > 6mths out | Win on TAB | 144.9 | 6/39 52 races (13 with no selections) |
| C6 sprint | 1 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted 'Flexible' jockey disadvantage | Win on TAB | 63.5 | 8/43 20 races |
| Fillies & mares (sprint) | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Form > 3mths out Distance form out 'Flexible' jockey disadvantage | Win on TAB | 74.5 | 10/65 27 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) | 3 loading on 'speed' horses Speed ratings weight adjusted Broad BP adjustments Distance form out | Win on TAB | 8.4 | 20/212 78 races |
| Open sprint | Speed only analysis Fastest horse option 4 loading on 'speed' horses Form > 6mths out 'Flexible' jockey disadvantage Barrier disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 17.5 | 2/10 35 races (25 with no selections) |
| RBH races | 1 loading on 'speed' horses Distance form out 'Flexible' jockey disadvantage Broad BP adjustments | Win on TAB | 16.6 | 26/209 79 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 158 races in the Canberra region of south eastern Australia (Canberra, Queanbeyan, Goulburn and Wagga) during 2008, 141 on dry tracks and 17 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy'). It is included with My HorseRaces but with all races deleted ready for Australian non-metropolitan races to be added.
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (New Form files and accepting form on any racecourse) arbitrarily selected and downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia
(RA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.Of the 158 races:
Of the 152 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Weight rating adjustments out Distance form out if sprint Jockey disadvantage out Barrier positions out Default course records (some missing) Class wts down 15% if prize money $7000 or less | Win on TAB | 33.1 | 39/428 158 races |
| All | As above for win betting | Place on SP odds | 24.6 | 128/428 158 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -12.7 | 49/166 158 races |
| 3yo+ (sprint) | Distance form out Jockey disadvantage out Broad BP disad (no defaults) Default course records (some missing) | Win on TAB | 14.2 | 19/217 69 races |
| RBH races | 4.0 loading on 'speed' horses Limit weights ignored 'Flexible' jockey disadvantage Specific BP adjustments with defaults (some missing) Default course records (some missing) Class wts down 38% if prize money $7000 or less | Win on TAB | 65.6 | 18/163 75 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 734 Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane races from 2005, 617 on dry tracks and 117 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy').
The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files arbitrarily selected and downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Australia
(RA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.Of the 734 races:
Of the 629 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Jockey disadvantage out Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 6.3 | 168/2161 734 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -11.4 | 228/774 734 races |
| All (wet tracks) | Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 12.5 | 29/313 117 races |
| Distance races | Limit weights ignored Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 42.1 | 24/305 105 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed only analysis Single 'standard' option Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 22.6 | 8/34 68 races (34 with no selections) |
| 3yo sprint | Jockey disadvantage out Declining ratings out Distance form out 3yo age improve 47-49kg | Win on TAB | 25.1 | 36/416 149 races |
| C3 to C6 (sprint) | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 1.3 | 18/347 154 races |
| Fillies & mares group & listed (sprint) | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Form > 6mths out Declining ratings out Distance form out | Win on TAB | 56.7 | 19/128 56 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) | 3.5 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Form > 6mths out Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 51.3 | 40/318 130 races |
| Open and welter (sprint) | 1.5 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Declining ratings out | Win on TAB | 28.0 | 21/221 49 races |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 315 Sydney and Melbourne races from 2004, 272 on dry tracks and 34 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy'). It is included with My HorseRaces to demonstrate the benefit of building up a data base of races (and their results) over time.
The race data were typed into My HorseRaces manually before some analytical features were available; such as, winning consistency measure and class weight changes for prize money. The data base, therefore, does not include wins/starts statistics for horses or race prize money.
Of the 315 races:
Of the 255 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Default options | Win on TAB | 8.3 | 95/860 315 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -23.5 | 90/343 315 races |
| All (dry tracks) | Default options | Win on TAB | 11.4 | 85/780 281 races |
| All (wet tracks) | Default options | Place on SP odds | 28.1 | 28/80 34 races |
| Distance races | Form >3 mths out | Place on TAB | 37.5 | 47/165 60 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed only analysis Standard option Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 28.7 | 9/34 42 races (8 with no selections) |
| 3yo sprint | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Form >3 mths out Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 14.7 | 24/154 62 races |
| Fillies & mares (sprint) | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Distance form out | Win on TAB | 44.0 | 18/139 51 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) 0,1 or 2 metro wins | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Distance form out | Win on TAB | 21.4 | 11/130 56 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) no other restrictions | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 36.3 | 5/40 18 races |
| Open sprint and open quality (sprint - dry) | Speed only analysis Fastest horse option | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | 45.9 | 2/5 25 races (20 with no selections) |
Notes to table:
This data base contains 168 Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races from 2000, 136 on dry tracks and 32 on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy').
The selection of races is biased towards quality distance races and sprint races for 2yos, fillies & mares and horses with restricted numbers of metropolitan wins.
The race data were typed into My HorseRaces manually.
Of the 168 races:
Of the 133 sprint races:
| Races chosen | Analysis options | Betting | Return on turnover(%) | No pays/no bets and no races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | Default options | Win on TAB | 15.0 | 52/449 168 races |
| All | Market favourite | Win on TAB (mkt-based bets) | -4.4 | 56/179 168 races |
| All (dry tracks) | Default options | Win on TAB | 24.7 | 43/359 135 races |
| All (wet tracks) | Form >3mths out | Place on SP odds | 13.9 | 26/89 33 races |
| Distance races (dry tracks) | Limit weights ignored | Win on TAB | 27.5 | 8/81 25 races |
| 2yo sprint | Speed only analysis Standard option Speed comparison = 4 Speed ratings weight adjusted | Win on TAB | 33.3 | 10/49 47 races |
| Fillies & mares (sprint) | 4 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out Form > 3 mnths out | Win on TAB | 5.5 | 12/56 33 races |
| 3yo+ & 4yo+ (sprint) 0,1 or 2 metro wins | 2 loading on 'speed' horses Jockey disadvantage out | Win on TAB | 54.2 | 17/119 44 races |
Notes to table: